Difference between revisions of "Forecasting"
(Created page with 'Predictions of events based on data. There are several ways of forecasting. * Bayesian * ARMA  Auto Regression Moving Average * Technical Analysis  Finance ==Examples== * htt...') 
(→Applications of forecasting) 

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−  +  Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation of some variable of interest at some specified future date.  
−  There are  +  Predictions of outcomes based on data and prediction models. Forecasting involves [[Predictive Modelling]]. 
−  *  +  
−  *  +  There are millions of datasets out there. There are thousands of models. They determine the quality of forecasts. Reducing error is always an issue. 
+  
+  * [[Forecasting History]]  
+  * [[Forecasting Application]]  
+  * [[Forecasting Methods]]  
+  
+  
+  
+  There are various forecasting methods listed below:  
+  ==Extrapolative Methods==  
+  Extrapolative methods are to infer or estimate by extending or projecting known information.  
+  {class="wikitable sortable" width=100%  
+  !#!!Method!!Description!!Actuary Usage!! Business Usage  
+    
+   width=5% 1  
+   width=25% [[Moving Average]], [[Simple Moving Average]]  
+   width=40%  
+  * [[Linear Regression]]  
+   width=15% Frequently used  
+   width=15% Widely used  
+  
+    
+   2  
+   Exponential Smoothing  
+    
+  * HoltWinters methods  
+   Generally not used  
+   Widely used for TS analysis  
+  
+    
+   3  
+   [[Auto Regression Moving Average]] (ARMA)  
+    
+  * http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Box%E2%80%93Jenkins  
+   Generally not used  
+   Widely used  
+  
+  class="sortbottom"  
+  }  
+  
+  ==Explanatory Variable Methods==  
+  Use of a variable that explains a related response variable. Often called an independent variable or predictor variable.  
+  
+  {class="wikitable sortable" width=100%  
+  !#!!Method!!Description!!Actuary Usage!! Business Usage  
+    
+   width=5% 1  
+   width=25% [[Regression Analysis]]  
+   width=40%  
* Technical Analysis  Finance  * Technical Analysis  Finance  
+   width=15% Widely used  
+   width=15% Widely used  
+  
+    
+   2  
+   Predictive Modeling  
+    
+   Gaining popularity  
+   Widely used  
+  
+    
+   3  
+   Artificial Neural Networks  
+    
+  * http://www.neuralforecasting.com/neural_forecasting_data.htm  
+   Generally not used  
+   Sometimes used  
+  
+    
+   4  
+   Econometric Modeling  
+    
+   Generally not used  
+   Widely used  
+  
+  class="sortbottom"  
+  }  
+  
+  ==Simulation Modeling Methods==  
+  {class="wikitable sortable" width=100%  
+  !#!!Method!!Description!!Actuary Usage!! Business Usage  
+    
+   width=5% 1  
+   width=25% Cellbased Modeling  
+   width=40%  
+   width=15% Frequently used  
+   width=15% Frequently used  
+  
+    
+   2  
+   Systems Dynamics Simulation  
+    
+   Generally not used  
+   Becoming more widely used  
+  
+    
+   3  
+   Multiagent Simulation  
+    
+   Generally not used  
+   Becoming more widely used  
+  
+  class="sortbottom"  
+  }  
+  
+  
+  
+  ==Judgmental Methods==  
+  * Composite forecasts  
+  * Surveys  
+  * [[Delphi Method]]  
+  * Scenario building  
+  * Technology forecasting  
+  * Forecast by analogy  
+  
+  ==Composite Methods==  
+  {class="wikitable sortable" width=100%  
+  !#!!Method!!Description!!Actuary Usage!! Business Usage  
+    
+   width=5% 1  
+   width=25% Bayesian Forecasting  
+   width=40%  
+   width=15% Generally not used  
+   width=15% Generally not used  
+  
+    
+   2  
+   Others?  
+    
+   Generally not used  
+   Generally not used  
+  
+  class="sortbottom"  
+  }  
+  
+  
+  ==Forecasting==  
+  * [[Predictive Analytics]]  
+  * [[Machine Learning]]  
+  * [[Backward Propagation]]  
+  
+  ==People==  
+  * Rob Hyndman  http://robjhyndman.com/  
+  
+  
+  
+  ==Forecasting Models==  
+  Every industry has its "models". These range in the thousands.  
+  
+  * 520day Moving Average  Trading  
+  * RainfallRunoff Models  Hydrology  
+  * Logistics optimisation models  
+  * Finance optimisation models  
+  * Economic Models  
+  * Finance Models  
+  ** http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_finance  
+  ** [[Linear Regression]]  
+  ** [[Moving Average]]  
==Examples==  ==Examples==  
+  * Trading Models  
+  ** http://www.thestreet.com/story/10414044/1/howtobuildyourowntradingmodelin8steps.html  
* http://www.forexnet.lv/EditModule.aspx?tabid=590&mid=1044&def=News%20Article%20View&ItemId=718  * http://www.forexnet.lv/EditModule.aspx?tabid=590&mid=1044&def=News%20Article%20View&ItemId=718  
+  * http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/gradingtheforecastsofexperts182/  
+  * http://blog.centage.com/  
+  * http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forecasting#Categories_of_forecasting_methods  
+  * http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forecasting  
+  * http://www.ipredict.it/ForecastingMethods.aspx  
+  
+  
+  {{DISQUS}}  
+  
+  [[Category: Predictive Analytics]] 
Latest revision as of 22:44, 29 August 2016
Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation of some variable of interest at some specified future date.
Predictions of outcomes based on data and prediction models. Forecasting involves Predictive Modelling.
There are millions of datasets out there. There are thousands of models. They determine the quality of forecasts. Reducing error is always an issue.
There are various forecasting methods listed below:
Contents
Extrapolative Methods
Extrapolative methods are to infer or estimate by extending or projecting known information.
#  Method  Description  Actuary Usage  Business Usage 

1  Moving Average, Simple Moving Average  Frequently used  Widely used  
2  Exponential Smoothing 

Generally not used  Widely used for TS analysis 
3  Auto Regression Moving Average (ARMA)  Generally not used  Widely used 
Explanatory Variable Methods
Use of a variable that explains a related response variable. Often called an independent variable or predictor variable.
#  Method  Description  Actuary Usage  Business Usage 

1  Regression Analysis 

Widely used  Widely used 
2  Predictive Modeling  Gaining popularity  Widely used  
3  Artificial Neural Networks  Generally not used  Sometimes used  
4  Econometric Modeling  Generally not used  Widely used 
Simulation Modeling Methods
#  Method  Description  Actuary Usage  Business Usage 

1  Cellbased Modeling  Frequently used  Frequently used  
2  Systems Dynamics Simulation  Generally not used  Becoming more widely used  
3  Multiagent Simulation  Generally not used  Becoming more widely used 
Judgmental Methods
 Composite forecasts
 Surveys
 Delphi Method
 Scenario building
 Technology forecasting
 Forecast by analogy
Composite Methods
#  Method  Description  Actuary Usage  Business Usage 

1  Bayesian Forecasting  Generally not used  Generally not used  
2  Others?  Generally not used  Generally not used 
Forecasting
People
 Rob Hyndman  http://robjhyndman.com/
Forecasting Models
Every industry has its "models". These range in the thousands.
 520day Moving Average  Trading
 RainfallRunoff Models  Hydrology
 Logistics optimisation models
 Finance optimisation models
 Economic Models
 Finance Models
Examples
 Trading Models
 http://www.forexnet.lv/EditModule.aspx?tabid=590&mid=1044&def=News%20Article%20View&ItemId=718
 http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/gradingtheforecastsofexperts182/
 http://blog.centage.com/
 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forecasting#Categories_of_forecasting_methods
 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forecasting
 http://www.ipredict.it/ForecastingMethods.aspx